In recent decades, sustainable energy solutions that depend on renewable sources, like sunlight and wind, have made remarkable progress and gained global popularity.
Many countries have committed to reducing their carbon emissions significantly in the coming years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2050, wind and solar technologies could contribute around 62% of the world's energy.
Nevertheless, recent studies raise concerns that climate change may disrupt the supply and demand for wind and solar energy.
Climate change has extensive effects on the entire energy system. Wind energy, a crucial resource for safeguarding the environment, is itself impacted by climate change.
To understand how a rise in temperature affects wind speed, we must consider the role of pressure differences in generating wind. When areas have varying air pressures, winds form.
Often, these pressure differences result from temperature disparities between land and ocean. If land temperatures increase faster than ocean temperatures, the temperature gap narrows, leading to weaker winds.
On the supply side, many wind and solar solutions heavily rely on weather conditions, making them susceptible to sudden meteorological events that can reduce their energy production.
On the demand side, global warming may increase the need for cooling systems and decrease the demand for heating. Extreme temperature fluctuations, like heatwaves or severe cold spells, can cause abrupt spikes in global energy demand.
A group of researchers analyzed climate simulations using 12 state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs). These models predict climate processes by representing them on a three-dimensional world map grid.
The 12 models were part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) research effort. The research covered climate simulations from 1985 to 2014 and projections for future climate from 2041 to 2100.
Their analysis reveals that by the end of the century, the alignment of energy supply and demand in systems relying on wind and solar energy could significantly deteriorate due to climate change.
At mid to high latitudes, the reduction or alteration of renewable energy supply could have a substantial impact on this balance.
Intriguingly, the research team found that in some regions, reduced heating demand because of global warming might offset or reverse these effects.
However, in lower latitudes, where solar energy is more abundant, increased cooling demand due to intolerably high temperatures may disrupt the supply-demand equilibrium.
Based on their study, the researchers recommend that energy system planners take future climate change into account.
Failing to do so might result in power outages caused by unprecedented climate-related risks. This research offers essential insights into how climate change could influence the wind and solar industries in the future, particularly concerning energy supply and demand.
These findings should serve as a call to action for energy providers and researchers, urging them to develop innovative strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and unpredictable weather on renewable energy supply and demand relationships.
